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[music] behold the earth, teaming with life, ideally suited for the development of humancivilization. it's no wonder that previous generations held the fundamental belief that the resources of the world were unlimited, that our planet with this ideal environment for life
was provided for our benefit and that we bear no responsibility for ensuring that the earth remains fertile for the development of our civilization. but as our population has grown, our appetite for energy has increased and in some cases we have misused our land. we can no longer assume that the earth will remain eternally ideal
for the advancement of our civilization or the quality of our life. rather we will forevermore be called upon to heed that biblical admonition, we need to be wise stewards of creation. but how do we know what to do? how does the earth really work? how could humans influence our climate orsea levels or any other aspect of the habitability of our planet?
fortunately, as our technological civilization has grownto where humans can affect the earth, we have also been provided with the toolsto study the earth and understand it, predict its future and determine the actions that will be most effective to protect our future for generations to come. in the early 1980s,
we've been studying the individual componentsof the earth; the atmosphere through meteorology and atmosphericchemistry, the oceans through oceanography, the land and its biology through ecology, but the earth is more complicated than that. the atmosphere, the oceans, the biosphere,the cryosphere are all coupled with complicated feedback mechanisms, governing their interactions. the earth is not simply individual components.
it is an integrated system that we need to understand is a system, if we are to predict the future of the earth. in the late 1980s, nasa embraced the concept of earth systemscience by bringing to bear the most important resource for studying theearth as a system, the global perspective of earth that is providedby orbiting spacecraft
nasa undertook one of its most important programs, the mission to the planet earth and the earthobserving system with the terra and the aqua and the aura satellites as the principal observatories for studyingthe earth as a system. many satellites have been added to this fleetof satellites observing the earth and these satellites areand will continue to provide comprehensive observations from which we can understand the earth anddevelop the models that allow us to predict our future.
in tonight's program, we are going to celebrate what we have learned about the key components of the earth systemssince we embarked upon mission to planet earth some three decades ago. but as we celebrate, all that we have learned, we need to be aware that we are in a raceagainst time. the earth is changing. human civilization is influencing the earth.
we need the best possible scientific understanding of all the factorsthat will influence the future of the planet so that we can make wise policy decisions to protect and to preserve this planet on which our civilization depends and if need be adapt to the changes that willcome. we need to become
and forevermore remain wise stewards of creation. we begin this evening with gail jackson; who will discuss the water cycle that is essential for life. then lola fatoyinbo will talk about the carbon cycle which is driven by many events including changing forest covers
and thorsten markus will examine the key icesheets of the antarctic and arctic and their role in sea level rise and finally piers sellers will wrap up withall the tasks that still lie before us. gail? [applause] thank you! our earth is a water planet from the oceans, ice, rivers, lakes and aquifers to the water suspended in our atmosphere,
our earth is definitely a water planet. take a look at our lovely earth, did you know that 99.5% of that water is storedin our salty seas? or locked up in glaciers and other inaccessiblelocations? leaving precious little fresh water availableto support our life on earth? so one of the vital signs of our earth isthe water cycle and understanding it and knowing it will help us to monitor our freshwaterresources and we can do this by measuring where, how the water moves within our planetand i will talk about that today.
this is a cartoon of our water cycle. it shows the linkages between the surfacewater, condensation, precipitation, and evaporation. the water cycle is a complex system that drivesthe movement of water and actually heat and energy around our planet; let's start by exploring the role of our deep and vast oceans in the water cycle. as you can see in this visualization of satellitedata, the ocean surface temperatures are not uniformaround the oceans.
the warm water is in red and the cool water is in blue; drive the movement of water and heat throughoutthe oceans which can in turn then influence our weatherpatterns such as might be seen during el niã±o andla niã±a years. also, driving the movement of water in ouroceans is salinity. as shown in this visualization of aquariussatellite data from nasa where evaporation occurs, our oceans get saltier,
it's shown in red, where precipitation falls, ice melts or rivers discharge our oceans get fresher as shown in the blue. as your ocean water becomes saltier it becomesmore dense and settles down to the bottom of the ocean and vice versa for the less salty water whichrises to the top. taken together, surface temperatures, salinity and also the ocean winds, the windsabove the ocean,
combine in a complex dance that drives the ocean circulation patterns as shown here. the oceans also store massive amounts of heat and are very slow to release it which makes them a major driver in our earth'sclimate system. the oceans and the atmosphere actually worktogether. without the oceans, the water stays on surface
and we need the atmosphere as well. for example, intense sunlight in the tropics causes evaporation from the salty oceans and that water forms in to massive clouds. those massive clouds, that are moved by theatmospheric winds to the mid-latitudes where precipitation occurseither in the form of rain or snow. the only way to get a global perspective ofprecipitation patterns is to measure from spaceborne platforms. six months ago nasa and the japan aerospaceexploration agency
launched our joint global precipitation measurementcore observatory satellite or gpm for short. with two advanced instruments, the core observatoryfor the first time is able to measure all phases of precipitation from very, very heavy rain to light rain tofalling snow. the gpm spacecraft serves as an anchor to a domestic and international constellationof satellite partners, which collectively provide precipitation estimates everywhere in the world every three hours,
in essence taking the pulse of the planet'sprecipitation. this imagery shows one of the very first eventsmeasured by the gpm spacecraft. it was one of the late-season falling snowevents here in east coast on march 17. the resulting 7 inches of snow in the washingtondc area may have affected your st. patrick's day plansthis year. off the coast of the carolinas, the high cloud tops are icy, down at the surface heavy rains shown in redfell in the atlantic ocean. farther north, over land, the storm has muchlower cloud tops
and they are composed of snow shown in bluewhich fell at the surface and we can see this information because the gpm spacecraft has two advancedinstruments; one of them which i like to call the x-ray through theclouds measures the precipitation all way throughthe cloud and provides what i would call an x-ray atthe surface. it's a two-dimensional view of the precipitation. the other instrument on board is what i liketo call
taking a cat scan of the clouds and it takes layer by layer within the clouds information about the precipitation that's vital for helping us to understandprecipitation and weather forecasting and climate models. so we're very excited about this data. where else but nasa with our partners, are we able to achieve such success so earlyin the mission? gpm also uses this data for applications
to provide societal benefit. gpm observes hurricanes and blizzards but as shown in the top two panels here, we are also able to look at the conditionsthat might lead to landslides and floods. on the other hand for trial and water availabilitymaps as shown in the bottom two images, we need to know how little it has precipitatedover time and gpm can tell us that too. emergency management then can use this data in near real time to make evacuation plans.
precipitation in the water cycle influences every person, every day, everywhere, maybe one of the greatest impacts of nasa'sdata is just used in improving weather forecastingmodels and climate change models for our everyday lives and our long-term future. now i would like introduce lola who is goingto talk about the pulse of our planet's biosphere. the most visual manifestation of life on earth happens every year when springtime comes and fresh green leaves and grasses appearall around us.
the biosphere, our living world is fueledby the seasonal pulse of energy that the change in season brings. in this visualization, we can see the seasonalchanges to plants on land and in the oceans. using data like these, we can estimate agriculturalyield worldwide, predict famines, fires and algae blooms orhelp with land management. this global view of our biosphere is alsocrucial for studying the flow of carbon to the earthsystem and predicting the rate and effect of climatechange on our home planet. in fact, the vegetation on land and in theoceans
are crucial component of the global carboncycle and climate change science. plants are the real lungs of the earth, absorbing the carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and producing the oxygen that we breathe. here we see what's call net primary productivity;maps of where and how much carbon is taken up or released by plants on a monthly basis. the colors are on these maps indicate howfast carbon was taken in for every square meter of land and you could see how most of the change incarbon uptake and emissions
happens in the northern hemisphere where majorityof the land masses lie. maps such as these, allow us scientists toroutinely monitor plant's role in the global carbon cycle and monitor how they're affecting and affectedby our changing climate. carbon is emitted into the atmosphere fromnatural sources such as forest clearing, decomposition, orvolcanic activity. 90% of the non-natural emissions result frompower production, cement production and transportation. over time 50% of that carbon that's emitted stays in the atmosphere while 25% gets takenup by trees and plants
and the remaining 25% is taken up by our oceans. and in fact, we can measure the contributionin vegetation growth and human's emissions on the carbon that is stored in the atmosphereusing satellite data. so this visualization is a time series ofthe global distribution and variation of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere as observed by nasa satellite since the year2000. for comparison we've overlaid a graph of theseasonal and inter-annual annual changed increase of carbon dioxide that was measured at themauna loa observatory in hawaii. so these data sets show us that the amount of carbon dioxide stored inthe atmosphere is steadily increasing
as we continuously pump carbon into the atmosphere and decrease our forested and vegetated areas. and even though we still see that semi annualdip in concentrations with the growth of vegetation in the springtime, the increasing trend of carbon dioxide concentrationsis leading to the warming and changing of our planet the seasonal pulse of vegetation growth is crucial for the well-being and balanceof life on earth. this visualization of carbon dioxide concentrationsin the atmosphere shows how every springtime when forests, grasslandsand agricultural lands green up
they suck up the carbon dioxide containedin the atmosphere through photosynthesis, but in the winter months that photosyntheticuptake is not there and the large amounts of carbon dioxide stay in the atmosphere and in fact data from satellite sensors haveshown us that during the northern hemisphere's growingseason, the midwest region of the united states boasts more photosynthetic activity than anywhere else on earth.
but with changes in the distribution and type of land cover on earth, the natural cycle of growth and carbon dioxideuptake is being disturbed and more and more carbon dioxide is accumulatingin the atmosphere. forest fires are one of the leading causesof vegetation change and land use change emissions globally, but the cause of fires can be both naturalor human induced. in africa forest fires are used to clear landfor agricultural activity and the amount and timing of fires is clearlylinked to the seasonal changes
from healthy green vegetation to dry grasses leading to these sweeping waves of fire thatmove from south to north and north to south each season as these areas are getting hotter and drierwith climate change, the intensity and amount of fire increases leading to even more clearing. but our satellite sensors don't just showus the health and changes in vegetation on large scales. we can also monitor the human impact on ourplanet on the scale of the city or our neighborhood. so this image series shows of the massivegrowth spurt of las vegas since 1972.
those large red areas are actually green spaces such as city parks or golf courses but now take a look at lake mead we can see how with the influx of people intothe area, the water table is steadily decreasing. these images from landsat really show us howwe humans have changed our planet. here we see the impact of mountaintop removalin west virginia from 1984 to the present. in saudi arabia we're able to see how irrigationtechnology
has led to agriculture expansion in deserts but also to water table depletion in nearbyreservoirs. all of these examples are showing how we humans are changing thelook of the planet and consequently significantly affecting itsvital signs. our last example shows a recent map of a forestcover loss that is highlighted the extensive changes happening since just the year 2000. these images show forest clearing from wildfires
in colorado from 2000 to 2012 fueled by record temperatures and dry conditions. in general, wildfires in the western unitedstates are increasing in frequency and duration due to higher temperatures and longer growingseasons and this has resulted in twice as many acresburnt each year compared to just 40 years ago. these seasons are like the heartbeat of theplanet, fueling the growth of vegetation worldwide
and just as the seasons can affect the healthof forested areas, they're also affecting the health of our icecaps and glaciers and on that note i would like to thank youfor listening and introduce the next speaker, dr. thorsten markus. good evening, thank you lola and before istart i just wanted to say that lola couple of years ago won the presidential earlycareer award in science and engineering, super honor, congratulations. so anyhow yeah we so anyhow we have good peoplegoddard, incase you haven’t noticed.
so now, let's get to the cool part of thisevening. the ice or we scientists call it lovinglythe cryosphere or we use fancy words to make it sound better. now the bad news for the ice, the earth is getting warmer and that's just a fact and no matter whatyou think about, global change, global warming et cetera, it is getting warmer and it's most pronounced at polar latitudes.
it's especially true for the arctic. we at goddard, we have nasa i should say, we like to include jpl sometimes, we at goddard and jpl a study of the arcticfrom the satellite. it's a very hostile environment; it's only with satellites that we have. now a data record of what's going on in thearctic and the graph behind me, you see the temp of evolution of arctic seaice during the summer.
in the early years of microsatellite imagery it was relatively stable and scientist detecteda slight decrease and sea ice extent. but over the last year this trend has increased, the negative trend has increased tremendously and there is absolutely no doubt anymore frommany scientist that the arctic sea ice is shrinking tremendously. these trends are statistically significant. to understand better what's going on we need to understand that the ice, the arcticsea ice,
it's completely different from the frozenlake in your neighborhood. it's a highly, very highly dynamic system. it moves around like a pulsating living being and you can see for example west of greenlandand especially east of greenland, these big streams, current of thick ice, it is leaving the arctic system and it's way more than as i said a frozenlake. there are constant openings and closing and these openings where the heat from theocean is getting into the atmosphere.
it's a very complex system, it's very beautiful too i have to say and this is why it is so completed to predictions and if actually i could do prediction i wouldbecome a stock broker. so if the ice is shrinking and thinning, it's more subjective to changes in the atmosphereand oceanic conditions. the record minimum we observed in 2012 islargely driven by the storm that developed over the arctic that moved a lot of ice out of the arcticocean
and so we are seeing these interactions between ocean atmosphere and ice more dramatically than we have seen in thepast when we had a more consolidated pack of ice pack. so we see these drastic changes in the arctic, on the other side you see the antarctic and people notice hey, what's going on, thearctic is changing, the antarctic is not changing as much. as a matter of fact we see a slight increasein the antarctic.
the reason is these are completely different...completely different climate systems. for example, just to say one example, in the arctic, at the north pole we have oceanwhich is surrounded by land. so the opposite is true, in the southern hemisphere we have land masswhich is surrounded by ocean and talking about land masses similar to the sea ice, the ice sheets are dynamic as well. again it's not just a stable ice sheet.
the way ice sheets work is it's snows, it's a center of the arctic of the ice sheetantarctica or greenland and this ice is slowly moving towards theedges of the continent and breaks off as icebergs and if the system is imbalanced, the mass of snow equals the mass of the icebergs that are breaking off. in addition to this though, we have seen increasedmelt, we had a record melt in greenland a year ortwo ago, and in addition to melt itself
we know that some of the melt waters accumulateas ponds on top of the ice, can drain to the bottom of the ocean... tothe bottom of the ice sheet and lubricate the interface between the icesheet and the bedrock, causing an extreme acceleration of glacierflow. some of the glaciers especially around greenland accelerated for more than 100%. we have satellites that can actually directlymeasure the mass of the ice sheets. one of the coolest concept, i mean as a physicisti think it's a really cool concept, it's grace, and grace does not look upwards or downwards,
it actually just measures the distance betweenitself, between the two satellites and that with aprecision with less of the width of a hair. the first satellite goes over a field of highgravity its accelerated ever so slightly and the distancebetween the satellites increases until the second satellite is over the samegravity hill and the distance becomes equal again. so using results from grace, we can actually determine directly the mass of the ice sheets
and if you look at the time series derivedfrom grace over greenland, we can see we have tremendous, tremendouslosses. we are losing right now about 200 gigatonnesof ice every year, every year, so i can, to provide an analogy, it is a kilometer, by kilometer, by a kilometerof ice is one gigatonne, or 200 gigatonnes, i did some math on my wayout here, 200 gigatonnes of ice would cover the stateof california roughly, with half a meter. so, we can add, half a meter every year forcalifornia. if senator nelson would still be here it isalmost equal to area in, i think its equal
close to the area of florida. so and then we launched icesat-1 in 2003, this was a first laser alternator that surroundedearth and we got a much better view in terms ofhow is elevation changing around greenland, around antarctica and it provided the first measurement of antarcticaas well as the arctic sea ice. before then, we were very pretty much blindof the third dimension of the ice sheets and the sea ice. so it was a real cool mission and very nasa,i think.
icesat-1 ended in 2009 and after that we starteda campaign called operation icebridge. the scientist, and fortunately, headquartersas well, realized we cannot afford to be completelyblind to the fast changing conditions in the climate regions. so we are flying twice a year, over the key regions in the arctic as wellin the antarctic, and instead of showing more data, i thought let's look just at some of the picturesbecause i had the honor and the privilege
of flying on some of these missions. it is just phenomenal flying over, it's 1500 feet, 500 meters, it is really closeflying over the ice sheets and sea ice. you fly over glacier and you have mountainsleft and right. in addition to lasers, we have radars thatpenetrate the ice, so we can actually measure the ice thicknessas well, and then of course, with all the objectivityof a project scientist, in 2017, we launched icesat-2, which is so cool and so phenomenal,
and this is nasa at its best in my opinion, because it is ground breaking technology andground breaking science. with icesat-1, we measured the earth every150 meter, roughly, if you think about football, footballseasons are started, basically in the end zones. with icesat-2, we measure with centimeterprecision, every yard line, which is really cool. and it will be a really discovery mission, and in addition to monitoring the ice sheets,
we will monitor the height of trees, changes in the land, maybe tectonics, height of the oceans etcetera. it will be a real discovery mission, i am very, very excited about it, and workedvery hard. when i was a young scientist, this is my lastslide, just ten years ago, i went to antarctica tomeasure sea ice thickness. this was then ten years ago, before icesat-2 launched, the only way wecould measure sea ice thickness,
it was no other means. we went there and drilledlots and lots and lots of holes. it was great fun of course and we do had some visitors as well, as youcould see at the top, what is it from your side, top left, isn't it amazing to just come out and lookwhat we are doing? so, i think nasa does really cool stuff forcryosphere scientists and we have come a long way since ten yearsago, when i went down there to take measurementsof the ice and with this, i want to give the microphoneto piers sellers former astronaut and my boss.
thanks. so i have to treat thorsten with a lot ofrespect because he reminds me of arnnie schwarzeneggerwith a phd, i don't want to get on wrong side of him. so, okay, the view from orbit really doesput things in perspective and as senator nelson has seen this with hisown eyes, so he knows what i am talking about, i have enjoyed seeing the earth too with myown eyes through a spacesuit visor, and i am absolutely fascinated by what a satelliteinstruments can tell us.
we, that's nasa and all our friends at nasa, are quite literally conducting a health checkof the planet. okay, so these hands on working scientistshave dazzled with facts and data. it's my job, as a grizzled bureaucrat to drag this event over the finish line andlet you find your cars. so i will try and be quick. so here are a few closing thoughts. what all of this means for science, for policymakers and for the crew spaceship earth, that's all of us.
okay, this movie shows you what happens when we combine the satellite data with computermodels and use a lot of physics to fill in the gapsbetween observations. here we are on the space, this is not a snowstorm, these are solar particles blasting by theearth but we are protected by magnetic field. so the particles are diverted. as we come down deeper, and by the way this is a model based on physicsand observations so there is fact and mathematics, isaac newton is hard at work here,
here is the atmospheric flows, again producedby a model, circulation timescales here are on hours todays, so we come a little bit deeper in to the world, we see the surface winds. now we are lookingat the surface, ocean circulation. ms. gail said that's forced by heat, windand salinity, timescales of days and months and years. deep yet, and now i will talk with the frenchaccent like jacques cousteau, the sub surface flows down to the deep oceancirculation, timescales of a thousand years or more.
it's beautiful and we get all of this for combining the satellitedata with what we understand about nature and putting it in to a computer. this stuff is based on actual reality. not the kardashian kind, but let's get back to think about climate. so here is a computer model simulation ofthe earth's climate system, this is not a picture, this is a simulation. it's a toy world based on physics
and propelled by satellite data. i guess when you look at the detail here, the popcorn clouds, the winds, or the planetaryscale waves in the atmosphere. the snow, the ice, the biosphere, it's allright there. it's all being calculated and it's all beingfaithfully reproduced. now what is this all good for? well, models have got to the point of providingweather prediction up to 72 hours reliably. you can quite literally bank on it, most days. this is going to be hurricane sandy, thisis actually a model prediction of sandy
and as you could see the hurricane wanderedaround the atlantic before turning sharply left and whacking new jersey and new york. but accurate warnings were given out 72 hoursahead of time and many lives and a lot of money was savedas a result of these warnings. by the way, speaking for us, that's not counting all the people up anddown the east coast who did not have to evacuate, because they knew the hurricane was goingto miss them all together, and that counts for something. now the exact same physics
and many of the same observations that weuse for weather are helping us to understand climate better. and these climate models allow us to peerin to the future and will help us make decisions about energy,water and food resources. okay, this is a simulation of what we thinkthe earth will look like in 20 to 30 years. actually it's not. it's the picture of the sun, it's being taken by our heliophysical friendsusing their satellites. besides being a really cool image,
it shows that we are keeping a close eye onthe sun, again using satellites and guess what, we have found the sun to be not guilty forthe recent warming trend. now as i said we use the same exact physicsand many of the same satellite data to be used in weather models to build and test our climate models. now what these models do tell us is the rate of warming depends very largelyon how much fossil fuel we use and how much carbon dioxide we put in the atmosphere.
i am now going to show you a graph and it is very bad form for even like this but in compensation it may be the most expensivegraph ever made and thats not because of the colors. this cost several years of effort by thousands of scientists worldwide to putit together and it tell us something, we didn't know untilonly recently. it's something new and something very, verysimple. what it says is that the expected rise intemperature is directly,
linearly related to the amount of fossil fuelwe burn. the x axis of the bottom shows how much fossilfuel we burn which makes the carbon dioxide and the y-axis shows the temperature increasethat results from this extra co2. the zero point is roughly or a bit left tothe zero point is roughly when fellow in england in 1700 decided it was time to start an industrialrevolution and dug up the first pit of coal. now, if you look at the black line that endsat 2010,
you'll see that we burned about 500 gigatonnesof carbon since then and a gigatonne of carbon is a brick of coal about a kilometer on the side so it is a bigpiece of coal and that's give us about 1Ⱐc rise in globaltemperature which is what we have seen and that's led to some changes in the world that my good friend i've just shown you. now we’ll likely to burn 1000 gigatonnes, that's halfway up the graph,
that will give us two degree centigrade totwo and half centigrade increase in global temperature. we definitely don't want to be up in the topright-hand corner, four degree centigrade. this look like a very different planet thanthe current earth that we inhabit and we don't really know what that planetwould look like, how it would work, so this is sobering, right? but is it necessary going to be grim and nastyto the maximum?
is this evening going to be a total downerfor you all if we don't count the refreshments? i think not and there is some basis for myoptimism. here is a picture of the ozone hole that wasdiscovered in 1979. the blue color shows that ozone is being eatenup by manmade chemicals, many refrigerants. we saw the hole growing rapidly in the 80sand 90s and this was bad news because ozone protects most of life on earth from strong ultraviolet radiation from thesun and that's bad for you. but here is the good part of the story. governmentsall around the world took information seriously.
here is a un meeting where they are discussingthe problem on what to do about it. it modeled on goddard seminar. here are all the agreements that they crankedout to reduce the chemicals that cause the problem and here is two of goddard's finest scientistsin the back row providing solid science advice and eatingchips, there they are. alright, and what happened? here is a picture of two worlds; on the left is world that we are likely tosee
with the ozone depletion leveling off andthen slowly reversing and on the right is what would have happened if we didn't have all those controls and agreements and blue here means no ozone which is badnews. on right-hand side is the world we avoided. that's the world with thinning ozone, a world with damage to all living things exposedto sunlight and that includes the crops that provide ourfood, the ocean plankton that makes our oxygen
and damage to us, people. and now a news flash today at four o'clock united nations released a statement. it reads, the earth's protective ozone layeris well on track to recovery in the next few decades thanks concerted international action againstozone depleting substances according to a new assessment by 300 scientists. so it can be done,
this is proof that people and that's all of us and our political representatives can use solid information, facts, models, like every thing we have seen tonight to make the right decisions. now sometimes it happens a bit later, and it takes bit longer than we would like but generally the right decisions get made. now there’s are a lot of people on thisplanet.
this is christmas 1968 3 billion people on earth and there they allare, actually we or some of us are, minus threebecause somebody has to take the photo. now here is a picture 2013 put together fromsatellite data. now there are 7 billion of us plus six onspace station and we will top out at about 9 billion thiscentury. but again i think there is reason for optimismhere because people are actually part of the solution. every new human born is not just an extrastress on the world
but brings with himself or herself resourcesand answers. this is an early picture of len fisk. so i think, i hope that with the ingenuity, the resourcefulness, the grit that has gotthe human race so far we can use these vital signs about the healthof our planet to figure out how to live long and prosperon this earth. now before i close up i'd like to recognizethe great work done by the visualization team, ali ogden, wade sisler, rani gran, horacemitchell and friends who put all these beautiful pictures together
and of course a huge thank you for all speakersand sponsors so put your hand together please. [music]
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